The Industry Dominant Economic Features
Market Size and Rivals:
Pace of Process and Product Technology Change
Economies of Scale in Purchasing
PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
Threat of New Entrants
THE DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE INDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPACT
The Economy and Interest Rates
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR COMPETITIVE SUCCESS
Understanding the Markets
Understanding Local Regulations
INDUSTRY’S ATTRACTIVENESS, LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY AND CONCLUSION
The homebuilding industry plays a major role in the United States economy, as a significant employer and cash generator. Each year the industry hires more than 3.5 million workers and the housing investment and consumption accounts for one-fifth of the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP). Recent figures support the role of homebuilders as vital to the American way of life (AzPath). In 2001, the homebuilders were responsible for building 1,602,700 units of single- and multi-family homes, an increase from the 1,602,700 units built the year before (NAHB, Annual Housing Starts).
The homebuilding industry is a complex and multi-faceted group that includes or involves a wide range of other industries. Before a consumer closes on a new home, the homebuilder has worked directly or indirectly with the lumber industry, land developers, local governments, architects, electricians, plumbers, attorneys, real estate agents and mortgage companies to name a few.
In analyzing the homebuilder’s industry several aspects will be discussed. The industry’s dominant economic features, issues relating to Porter’s Five Forces, the drivers of changes in the industry and their impact, three companies and their positions within the market, key factors for competitive success and the attractiveness of the industry and its prospects for long-term profitability.
THE INDUSTRY DOMINANT ECONOMIC FEATURES
The homebuilding industry has grown along with the American population. In 1900, the industry produced 16 million units per year. By 1950 homebuilders were building 43 million units and in 2000 the number of units built jumped to 107 million. (NAHB, A Century of Progress 4) Sales of new homes reached a record high in 2002 with 974,000 units sold (8).
Market Size and Rivals:
Residential construction accounts for about $390 billion (or 45%) of $860 billion put in place for construction in the United States in 2001. (Grey, Snapshot). According to data compiled by The Builder 100’s 2003 issue, the largest homebuilders in the industry continued to dominate market share and bring in profits. For example, D.R. Horton closed 31, 584 homes (28,741 detached and 2,843 attached units) for a net income of $443 million. Pulte Homes built 28, 903 (23,937 detached and 4,936 attached units) and posted gross revenues of $7,512 million and a net income of $454 million. Lennar Corp. The industry leader in income, built 27,393 (22,736 detached and 4,657 attached) homes reporting gross revenues of $7,320 million and $545 million in net income. The fourth largest builder in the country, according to Builder 100 figures, was Centex, which was the number-one builder in 2002. The company built 24,524 homes (21,592 detached, 2,825 attached and 107 detached modular), leaving Centex with a net income of $477 million (Williams). These four companies not only dominate the market share, but vying for customers within the same markets — a rivalry that has the four competing among each other for the coveted number-one spot.
The current shift in American investment patterns away from Wall Street and into real estate has firms that specialize in commercial buildings making a move into homebuilding. The analysts at McGraw Hill cautions the move — the lists of top-400 commercial contractors and the top 100 builders do not overlap, with only a few exceptions such as Centex and Skanska USA (McGraw Hill). The homebuilding market requires experienced project managers, but more importantly financial skills not needed in commercial contracting as well as consumer-oriented marketing skills. Venturing into the intricacies of homebuilding, according to analysts, is risky business (McGraw).
Pace Of Process And Product Technology Change
Leif Ericksen, an AMR research analyst, believes that the construction business is notoriously inefficient. In his position, Ericksen tracks the use of information technology in the construction and engineering industries. To add to the problem, the homebuilder’s industry is faced with decreasing profit margins. Historically, the industry charged its customers on a cost-plus basis. Now, customers are normally charged a fixed price, with penalties for late delivery. These new pricing standards translate into easily putting a firm in the red for time lapses or cost overruns that sometimes are out of the builder’s control (Sweat). While information technology might help plot out a new water main, the fact remains that the process of homebuilding continues to require a labor force. A computer may help, but it won’t dig the hole or cut the pipes that carry the water. Unlike many other industries, the homebuilding industry cannot rely on automation. Keith Authelet, CIO of Gilbane Building Co., a Providence, R.I., engineering firm, is quoted in Jeff Sweat’s article as saying “There aren’t a lot of places where you can improve the efficiency of the operation. A lot of people say there’s no other way to lay a brick.” One way that information technology does help is in getting the flow of information throughout the project to those involved. The technological advances in the last decades can take days or even weeks off the process. Gilbane has developed a system that integrates information and can, for example combine the cost and changes to come up with a management network that will calculate the cost of making changes to a plan (Sweat).
New technology has also played a role in the homebuilder’s ability to grow. In the past, a homebuilder, who wanted to grow via startups or acquisitions, had to rely on manual systems. With a manual system, the information homebuilders had to work with was minimal. Chuck Shinn of the Littleton, Colorado-based Lee Evans Group, says that before computers he would have no way of practical way of getting pertinent information from a division back to corporate headquarters (Rice, Built for Speed).
Economies Of Scale In Purchasing
Economies of scale play a major role in keeping the leaders in the field at the top. For example, D.R. Horton, Inc., one f the top-five homebuilders, cashes in on its strength by buying lumber and other supplies in bulk. Having the capital and also by being able to purchase this way, puts the largest homebuilders in the position of undercutting the competition (Klauer).
In the past, the homebuilder’s industry was fragmented, but today the industry has seen much consolidation — buying out smaller regional players. One of the effects of the consolidation is that the bigger players can enjoy the leverage of economies of scale (Hale).
PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
In an article by Sharon O’Malley, “Local Leaders,” she made the case that the top builders in the country own, rather than dominate, market share. In the 50 most active markets for homebuilders 28 companies shared top billing. The top competitors in the market are Lennar Corp., D.R. Horton, Pulte and Centex that all compete in the same market that includes, single-family detached homes, attached homes and to a much lesser extent modular homes.
The force of the competition represents high power and has the impact of edging out the smaller homebuilder, either by undercutting costs or through acquisitions, thus taking away from the attractiveness of the industry.
Threat of New Entrants
The largest builders in the United States leave little room for emerging homebuilders to threaten the existence of the top builders in the country. Once these large companies get through taking their portion of market share, an average of only 10.75% of market share remains for new entrants to build their business (O’Malley.)
The top-10 homebuilders, D.R. Horton, Centex, Pulte, Lennar, KB Home, Beazer, Ryland, NVR, Hovnanian, and M.D.C have the same dominance in local markets as they do nationally. In 2002, this group of builders controlled 24% of the activity in the top 50 housing markets in the country. (O’Malley). That said, with low interest rates and the housing boom, the industry is attractive to new entrants, but as the McGraw Hill article points out new entrants enter at their own risk.
These numbers demonstrate the high power of the companies that hold the bulk of the market share, while showing a low degree of power left over for those desiring to enter the market. The numbers also indicate a barrier for entry into the market. A new entrant would be faced with higher costs, which might deter a homebuyer. At the same time, difficulties in entering the industry lessen the competition and weaken the free-market economy (i.e. homebuyers could pay more because of lack of competition).
The nature of the homebuilding businesses means little room for substitution, people have to live somewhere and the choices in American society come down to a house or an apartment. In this respect, homebuilders are in the position of high power and are an asset to the industry’s attractiveness. However, substitutes can be made within the industry. For example, a person who desires to buy a detached home, may move into the attached market and purchase a condo or rent an apartment of a person might choose to buy a mobile home.
One of the major problems facing homebuilders is the integration of the supply chain. In practice this process is difficult to manage. There are two main reasons for this. The first is that members of the supply chain have conflicting goals. For example, a supplier desires to sell to manufactures in large quantities at a rate that is steady. Conversely, the homebuilder has a need to implement long-production runs and, perhaps more importantly, the homebuilder must adjust his buying habits in reaction to changing customer demands (AzPath).
The second reason that makes the integration of the supply chain into the homebuilding process difficult is that the supply chain is not stagnant. It evolves and changes constantly. When customer demand increases or decreases each link in the chain is affected, from the direct supplier to the producer of raw materials (AzPath).
These changes cause shifts in the relationship between the homebuilder and the supplier and in these instances demonstrate a low-level of power and adversely affect the attractiveness of the industry. These problems would logically affect the local homebuilder more as smaller companies often have little negotiating power and do not enjoy the convenience of a diverse geographical market or relationships with a number of reliable suppliers.
Perhaps the strongest force in the homebuilders’ market in the new millennium is the power of the buyer. Historically, the housing market weathers a flailing economy and the effects of the falling interest rates has put homebuilders in the position of high power in the area of buyers. Though questions are raised as to how long the industry will continue to produce and sell at high levels, many believe that the demographic forecast looks bright. One demographic driver that will keep the homebuilding industry attractive over the next decade is the anticipated population growth, particularly among immigrants (Lace).
THE DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE INDUSTRY AND THEIR IMPACT
As mentioned before the anticipated growth in the population of the United States will continue to drive the homebuilders market. Another important factor relating to demographics is that the children of the baby-boomer generation are reaching or are at the age when they will buy their first home. These facts have many, such as David Weaver; a housing analyst at Legg Mason, predicting that the housing market will remain heated during the next 10 years. In addition, Weaver notes that baby boomers are reaching their peak earning years and will boost the market and give strength to the sector (Lace).
The Economy and Interest Rates
Housing analyst David Wheeler echoes the beliefs of other analysts in the field that the refinancing boom, which has helped boost the housing market since the year 2000, will take time to wear off. When it does, a stronger job market will take its place. A strong job market is a much stronger driver to the homebuilder’s industry than mortgage rates (Lace).
Centex Corporation is a homebuilder operating in five business segments: homebuilding, financial services, construction products, construction services and investment real estate. The company’s homebuilding operations include land purchase and development, home construction and sale of single-family homes, townhomes and low-rise condominium. Centex has positioned itself as a leader in the market, not only because of high earnings and sales, but through the use of backward and forward integration. On the back end, Centex is involved in investment real-estate operations that include the acquisition, development and sale of land. The company backward integrates with its construction products sector, which involves distribution and sale of construction materials including such as wallboard and concrete. Centex has also made use of forward integration with financial services including home financing, sub-prime home-equity lending and the sale of insurance coverage. In addition, Centex is one of the few companies that has positioned itself as a leader in the commercial and residential segment of the building industry. Moving up the integration chain is the company’s construction services that involve construction of office, commercial and industrial buildings (NYSE, Centex).
As a homebuilder, Centex has successfully positioned itself as a leader. It annually sells more than 26,425 homes to both first-time and move-up buyers. The homes average about $220,200 (Hoover’s Online, Centex). Centex also has maintained a strong position due to geographic diversity, working in the four major regions of the United States (Williams).
While D.R. Horton’s strategy for success is less diverse than that of Centex Corporation, its position in the homebuilding industry was ranked number one by Builder’s 100 D.R. Horton Inc. is primarily concerned with the construction and sale of single-family homes in most regions of the United States. The company designs, builds and sells its product on lots that it develops or buys pre-developed (NYSE, D.R. Horton). The size of a D.R. Horton home ranges from 1,000 square feet to 5,000 square feet and sells at an average $200,000, which puts the company in direct competition with the other leading players in the industry. However, the company also builds luxury homes that can cost up to $900,000. D.R. Horton operates through 45 or so divisions, building in nearly 40 markets in 20 states (Hoover’s Online, DH Horton). While D.R. Horton is less diversified than Centex, its position in so many markets is attractive in the sense that the company is more able to withstand negative regional changes in homebuilding markets and enjoy other advantages, such as high sales and economies of scales along with its competitors.
Pulte Homes differentiates itself from its competitors by operating as a holding company and offering its home-buying customers a broader range of products. Pulte designs and builds entry-level, move-up, and semi-custom single-family detached houses (about 86% of total unit sales), duplexes, townhouses, and condominiums at prices that range from $85,000 to almost $1.4 million, and average $242,000. In addition, Pulte is positioning itself in the marketplace to handle the demands of aging baby boomers. Pulte’s Active Adult Venture develops communities, mostly in traditional Sunbelt locales. The company’s attention to the aging demographics puts it in a strong position to capture the market as it ages. Pulte operates in most of the same regions as its fiercest competitors, but also plays an active role in the international markets, including Mexico and Argentina (Hoover’s Online, Pulte). Like its competitor’s Pulte forward integrates with its financial services segment, offering customers mortgage banking convenience (NYSE, Pulte Homes). While financial services are not necessarily the driving force of any of the companies, their presence within the largest homebuilders’ corporations appears to be a necessary and powerful marketing tool in a nation enamored with one-stop shopping.
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR COMPETITIVE SUCCESS
Understanding the Markets
As with any business, understanding the needs and desires of the target market is critical to success. For example, builders with their eyes on the present and future recognize that the nation’s largest earners are the baby boomers. Homebuilders will also understand that though the baby boomers are reaching the age of 60 that they refuse to think of themselves as old. Builders have responded with age-targeted, age-restricted and active-older-adult communities. Also, in response to demand, builders have moved master bedrooms downstairs, enhanced security systems and marketed high-end amenities such as crown-moldings, granite and hardwood flooring (Handley).
Homebuilders, particularly those in the national market, should also be in tune to local target market, understanding the demographics, geography and trends that are present in the communities the homebuilders serve.
Understanding Local Regulations
Builders are faced with a barrage of local regulations. To be successful, a company must stay abreast of not only of regulations that are in place, but changes that could affect the business. Changes in building codes are of particular importance. These changes can add cost and time to the process without adding value to the consumer. An example of a code change would be requiring hurricane-level windows in an area not susceptible to hurricanes, or a requirement that the builder use brick around the entire home. Changes such as these add to the cost of the home and when affordability is a factor the increased cost could discourage potential buyers (Mon).. Local regulations also play an important role on urban sprawl. There are areas where the government imposes restrictions on land use and dictate where development can occur (Mon.). Having a staff, or at least a person to keep the company informed of local governments’ intentions and legislation is vital to local success. To remain successful homebuilders have to know when to get out of a market because of rising costs and know when a market is ready for entrance.
Perhaps the most obvious key to success is the company’s reputation. Though there is not much written about it, any person who has built or bought a home name off what is wrong and what is right about the house. Most any person who has house hunted with a Real Estate agent has experienced wanting to see a home, but being discouraged by the agent because a certain builder built the home. Open a local newspaper and there is probably a story about people in subdivisions suing the builder because of negligence or outright violations of codes. Reputation, transmitted via word of mouth or personal experience is always a powerful and inexpensive form of advertising. A builder’s good reputation may not land a sale in and of itself, but builders with bad reputations cuts the prospects of getting a shot at a sale drastically.
INDUSTRY’S ATTRACTIVENESS, LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY AND CONCLUSION
Recapping some of the reasons mentioned previously, the homebuilder’s industry is positioned for long-term profitability. Demographics will continue to play a major role as baby boomers are now able to upgrade their homes and as their children enter the housing market. Additionally, the population of the United States is expected to grow, largely in part due to immigration.
While mortgage interest rates are likely to rise, analysts support the idea that higher employment is more beneficial to the industry than low interest rates. Low consumer confidence may affect the industry in the short-term; however, given the cyclical nature of consumer confidence, long-term profitability is unlikely to suffer sustained losses.
Larger companies have positioned themselves to take hedge against fluctuations in local markets. A boom in another area can offset a slower housing market in another. Besides spreading out the risk in the domestic market, many companies are looking internationally to spread their risk.
Long-term profitability for small, local homebuilders will likely suffer. The major players have the advantages of capital, experience and economies of scale. This heightens the chances that small homebuilders will not be able to survive, or that the major players may buy them out. However, as with any other business, small homebuilders who carefully carve niches within the marketplace can enjoy long-term success in a market that is tremendously complex and dominated by a few major players.
AzPATH Research Series Report No. 03. Del E. Webb School of Construction. “Supply Chains in Residential Construction.” 2.2. “Integrating the Supply Chain.” December 2001. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://construction.asu.edu/azpath/Documents/Reports/Report03.pdf.
Grey, Joseph. “Construction and Building Materials.” Hoover’s Online. 2001. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www.hoovers.com/industry/snapshot/profile/0,3519,14,00.html.
Handley, John. “Boomers Shun ‘R’ Word” May 18, 2003. Baltimore Sun www.sunspot.net.Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www.nbnnews.com/NBN/issues/2003-05-26/bnc2c.html#5.
Hoover’s Online. “Centex Corporation.” 2003. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.hoovers.com/co/capsule/8/0,2163,10308,00.html.
Hoover’s Online. “D.R. Horton.” 2003. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.hoovers.com/co/capsule/4/0,2163,15714,00.html.
Hoover’s Online. “Pulte Homes.” 2003. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.hoovers.com/co/capsule/7/0,2163,11137,00.html.
Hale, Jeff. “Hovnanian Enterprises.” February 11, 2003. The Online Investor. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.theonlineinvestor.com/company_spotlight.phtml?content=cs_hov.
Klauer, Gerald. “Homebuilders D.R. Horton, MDC on Solid Foundation.”May 14, 2003. MSN Money: CNBC. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/StockPicks/P47648.asp.
Lace, Paula. “Homebuilding Stocks Look Sturdy.” March 19, 2003. TheStreet.com. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www.thestreet.com/markets/paulalace/10075197.html.
Mon, Tony. “Localized Strategy.” April 4, 2003. Big Builder Magazine. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://builderonline.com/pages/builderonline/Story.nsp-story_id=1000029088&ID=builderonline&scategory=Computers&type=hivol.
NAHB. National Association of Home Builders. A Century of Progress: 1900-2000. Retrieved June 2, 2003 at http://www.nahb.org/assets/docs/files/v5_513200312545PM.pdf
NAHB. National Association of Home Builders Annual Housing Starts 1978-2002. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=113&genericContentID=554.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). “Centex Corporation.” NYSE web site. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.nyse.com/listed/ctx.html.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). “D.R.Horton.” NYSE web site. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.nyse.com/listed/dhi.html.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). “Pulte Homes.” NYSE web site. Retrieved June 6, 2003 at http://www.nyse.com/listed/phm.html.
O’Malley, Sharon. ” The Dominators.” Top 10 Take Charge.” 2003. Builders 100. Builder Online. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www2.builderonline.com/builder_100/local_leaders_2002_side2.asp.
Rice, Allison. Lists research by Loretta Williams. “Built for Speed.” “The Builder 100.” 2003. Builder Online. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www2.builderonline.com/builder_100/builder100_db.aspm.
Sweat, Jeff. “The House That IT Helped Build.” September 17, 2001. Information Week. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www.informationweek.com/story/IWK20010914S0020
Williams, Loretta. Builder 100 database. The Builder 100.” 2003. Builder Online. Retrieved June 5, 2003 at http://www2.builderonline.com/builder_100/builder100_db.asp.
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